Saturday, November 28, 2009

The Next Liberal Party Leader?

Government by the Conservatives no longer feels like a temporary aberration from the natural order of the universe. And it's getting harder for the Liberals to play the "Harper is scary" card.

The Liberals may hang onto Iffy, but if they don't, I suspect they will be looking for a white knight; that fabled leader who through personal charisma alone can turn their fortunes. And maybe I'm mistaken, but I'll bet they stake all on Justin Trudeau. There are others who are a bigger threat to the Conservatives, but having failed twice I don't think the Liberals will look for a steady hand who can rebuild the party, but someone they can rally their hearts towards.

3 Comments:

Blogger Ed LeBlanc said...

Interesting analysis but if, by chance, the Liberals decide to "dump" their current leader, Justin Trudeau will be put forward as a contender. However, I do not think there will be a rush for a coronation. They did that with Mr. Ignatieff and I doubt they will want to repeat that. Besides, Trudeau may possess his father's aura but he is too inexperienced right now.

If it would happen, there would be a full leadership contest with Bob Rae as the front runner. Frank McKenna will again be persuaded to run and he will be wild card as he contemplates a decision. If McKenna doesn't run, I think Bob Rae will clinch the contest. Despite what people say about his record as Ontario premier, he has the political skills and savvy that the Liberals desparately need right. Also, he as the left wing creditals that could woo back votes the Liberals are currently losing to the NDP in Ontario.

9:28 AM  
Blogger Shawn Abigail said...

I agree with your analysis of the possibilities. However it depends on how desperate the Liberals are. Desperate people do not make rational decisions. They make quick emotional decisions and look for a hero to win the next election for them, rather than a serious solid guy who will win the election after that.

8:50 PM  
Anonymous Ed said...

If Ignatieff goes, my bet is the Liberals will not make a quick emotional decision for the next leader. They did that with Ignatieff already and I doubt they would do it again. The Liberals may be desparate but having two leaders in a row in less than 12 months will sober them up quickly.

3:58 PM  

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