Sunday, May 17, 2009

What Does the Future Hold

I make no claim to having a gift of prophecy. But I try to keep my eyes open. Here's some suggestions for events which are possible in the near future:

25% chance - Pakistan is taken over by Islamic extremists in the next 6 months. Which would lead to an almost certain invasion by India.

50% chance - regardless of what happens in Pakistan, continuing instability leads Taliban supporters to claim that they now have possession of one of Pakistan's nuclear bombs. It doesn't matter if this is true. It doesn't need to be true. It is enough for them to make sure a claim.

33% chance - Israel takes out Iran's nuclear weapons program. Everyone knows Iran is building the bomb. Nobody wants Iran to have the bomb. Everyone will be secretly relieved that Israel did the dirty work. And Israel will be blamed, punished, etc.

2% chance - Obama uses a speech in Egypt in June as an opportunity to declare that he is a Muslim. Currently he would deny it, and even if he said he was, most people would not believe him (assuming that he is just saying it for political advantage). But his policies have been too consistently anti-Israel to be coincidence. Still, I would say this is unlikely.

5% chance - serious evidence is presented that Obama was born outside the United States, and thus is not constitutionally allowed to hold the office of President. Yes, this is another outside chance. However if it did happen, a vast majority of Americans would be in favour of forgetting what the consititution says about this matter.

75% chance - barring world instability (as above), the economy recovers much faster than expected. The Left takes credit for the stimulus spending, when in fact most of the stimulus spending is still working it's way through the government approvals process and stimulated nothing.


Anonymous Ed LeBlanc said...

Some comments on your predictions:

a. Pakistan taken over by extremists in 6 months. I'd give it 2% chance. I've been hearing this for years and so far nothing. When Bhutto was assassinated, the Pakistan was to collapse. So far, still standing.

b. The nuclear bomb thing. Again 2%. Heard about it for years and still nothing.

c. Israel takes out Iran's nuke program. I'd give it 5%. The circumstances are different when they last did it to Iraq. Iran's program is highly secret and well hidden. Israel would have to have 100% solide intel on where the key structures are and that they could be destroyed by air strikes.

d. Obama a Muslim? Big 0% on that one unless Mr. Obama is thinking about going into exile.

e. Obama born outside the US? Where did that one come from?? Again a big zero. Sounds like a wish-upon-a-star thing for anti-Obamaites.

f. Economy recovers faster. I'd give it a 75% as well. Also believe it won't be because of the stimulus spending which, as you said, takes a long time to actual make an effect. By the time most of kicks in, the recession will be over. Much-a-spent-about-nothing.

6:56 p.m.  

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