Predictions

Predictions are funny things. If they come true, people say it was obvious. If they don't come true, people wonder how you could be so mistaken. I certainly don't claim to be a prophet, but I do follow the geopolitical situation of the world, and I get my news from a variety of news media sources, not just the western new media. For example, it is interesting to read what the Israeli and Arab newspapers say, rather than just what the CBC or CNN says. It is also interesting to get occasional translations of what the Hebrew and Arabic editions say and how they differ from the English language editions.

So, for what it's worth, here are a number of predictions:

- chances that a room temperature super-conductor is discovered in the next 10 years - 10%
- chances that a room temperature super-conductor is discovered in the next 100 years - 15%
If it doesn't get discovered in the next 10 years, chances are it's impossible.

- chances that George Bush will be re-elected - 66%
- chances that Osama Bin-Ladin will be found before the American election - 10%
- chances that George Bush will be re-elected if Osama Bin-Ladin is found before the American election - 100%
I think this one is self-explanatory.

- chances that the U.S. launches a military attack on another nation before the election - 0%
Bush does not want to cloud the election.

- chances that whoever wins the U.S. election will launch a large scale strike on North Korea - 75%
Kim is going to develop nuclear weapons because they represent his only chance at keeping power. Whoever the U.S. President is, he will authorize a large scale strike. 200-400 Tomahawk cruise missiles and up to 16 B-2 bombers will take place in the attack. No ground forces will take place in the attack. South Korea will not be consulted and will be outraged.

- chances that Iran will develop nuclear weapons within the next 5 years - 90%
- chances that Iran will develop nuclear weapons if North Korea gets attacked - 25%
- chances Israel will attack Iran's nuclear weapon factory with conventional weapons - 0%
- chances Israel will attack Iran's nuclear weapon factory with nuclear weapons - 10%
Iran wants the bomb. To the religious conservatives that rule Iran, it is their chance to reignite the Islamic Revolution. They need to reignite the revolution before forces of social change in Iran sweep them out of power. If North Korea's weapon making capability is swept out of the way, Iran will likely give up on the bomb. Iran is too far away for a conventional strike by the Israelis, but if they feel their back is to the wall, watch out.

- chances China will launch an invasion of Taiwan in the next 10 years - 75%
China is getting comparatively stronger every year and is absolutely committed to "regaining" Taiwan. The Chinese leadership will hope that a quick invasion will be accepted by the world as a fait accompli. Europe will accept it, while the United States will not. America cannot afford to let a democratic ally be invaded, regardless of how difficult the task and regardless of how many nations complain about them sticking their nose in other peoples business (i.e. failing to let aggressors take whatever they want from the weak). Retaking Taiwan will be the most difficult military action ever attempted by the United States. America's military is numerically smaller than at any time since the start of the Korean War. However, the quality of their forces is unmatched. Several CVBG's and submarines may isolate Taiwan, followed by a Marine assault, or the Americans might convince the Russians to let them attack China directly through Russia. It all depends on how threatened Russia feels.